Margin of victory

The Cardinals beat the Giants yesterday by the score of 5:4. Last time I took a look at the average run scored, and learned that teams score less runs in the postseason games. I also became curious about the difference of their scored runs in each game. I guess in the postseason there are more close games, especially with lower average of runs scored. Luckily, baseball reference has a nice tool to answer my question.

I first searched for the 'margin of victory' from 1998 to 2014 in the regular season. Here are the results.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	27	games	sum	avg
2014	741	451	347	272	217	149	83	66	41	29	16	8	4	3	1	1	1							2430	7933	3.264609053
2013	754	455	331	277	208	129	97	61	45	33	17	8	9	1	4	2								2431	7987	3.285479227
2012	697	457	346	319	199	179	82	55	35	23	14	13	4	0	3	2	1	1						2430	8027	3.303292181
2011	752	440	354	295	181	118	108	59	50	28	15	12	7	6	1	2		1						2429	7994	3.291066282
2010	732	449	298	285	200	176	84	77	45	31	20	17	6	5	2	0	1	1		1				2430	8296	3.41399177
2009	656	450	355	283	213	135	120	77	61	36	14	11	11	2	3	0		1	1		1			2430	8553	3.519753086
2008	681	432	330	273	241	166	95	71	56	30	23	16	6	3	3	1		1						2428	8509	3.504530478
2007	679	412	355	285	203	140	115	97	48	34	15	23	11	7	3	1	2						1	2431	8720	3.587001234
2006	675	424	368	255	210	158	114	80	53	24	24	17	15	7	3	0	1	1						2429	8641	3.557431042
2005	719	444	352	256	208	127	119	82	51	35	10	7	6	5	3	5			1					2430	8273	3.404526749
2004	639	474	351	280	207	128	110	75	71	35	32	11	6	4	3	0					1	1		2428	8628	3.55354201
2003	637	463	373	263	199	167	105	67	60	36	23	13	7	8	3	2	2		1					2429	8644	3.558666118
2002	674	430	371	293	190	138	109	74	59	32	21	8	14	3	3	1		2	2		1			2425	8510	3.509278351
2001	652	413	356	310	209	162	99	82	59	34	21	11	10	2	5	1	1		1					2428	8671	3.571252059
2000	697	411	325	274	191	149	131	78	62	41	27	11	12	5	3	4	1	3			2	1		2428	8847	3.643739703
1999	673	410	357	258	191	166	118	108	46	37	25	9	9	5	2	8		2	1	1	1			2427	8845	3.644416976
1998	693	431	384	259	206	145	103	68	47	31	26	16	10	6	3	1	1							2430	8411	3.461316872
total	11751	7446	5953	4737	3473	2532	1792	1277	889	549	343	211	147	72	48	31	11	13	7	2	6	2	1	41293	143489	3.474898893

(It is probably too small too read, but I didn't want the table to be out of page. If you want actual numbers, you can probably copy and paste to somewhere.)

From 1998 to 2014, the average margin of victory was about 3.475 in the regular season. How about the postseason? Here are the results.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	15	16	games	sum	avg
2014	11	3	3		1			1	1							20	48	2.4
2013	13	8	5	3	3	1	2	1	1	1						38	118	3.105263158
2012	10	10	3	1	6	2	1	2	2							37	126	3.405405405
2011	13	6	3	5	2	3	1		4	1						38	135	3.552631579
2010	8	5	5	5	5	1	1	1	1							32	108	3.375
2009	11	4	6	3	3	1			1		1					30	90	3
2008	8	10	4	4	2		1	2	1							32	98	3.0625
2007	5	5	2	6	2	1	2	1	2	1		1				28	123	4.392857143
2006	4	8	6	5	5	1	1									30	96	3.2
2005	10	7	5	4	1	2						1				30	84	2.8
2004	5	9	8	4	3	2	1		1		1					34	117	3.441176471
2003	12	11	4	5	4		1		1							38	102	2.684210526
2002	11	3	9	2	1	2		3	1	1		1				34	124	3.647058824
2001	10	8	3	5	1		3	1	1		1		1	1		35	137	3.914285714
2000	7	8	2	6	1	5	1			1						31	105	3.387096774
1999	10	4	3	3	3	2	2	1		1		1			1	31	126	4.064516129
1998	9	3	5	5	5	2		1								30	95	3.166666667
total	157	112	76	66	48	25	17	14	17	6	3	4	1	1	1	548	1832	3.343065693

3.343. It was smaller than 3.475, but not by much. The tiny difference must be from the fact that they score less runs in the postseason, but the postseason games do not seem to be closer games than the regular season ones. Interesting. While there may not be enough sample, there were several years where the average margin of victory in the regular season was smaller than the one in the postseason.

Maybe few games in the postseason might have bumped up the average, so I also looked at the percentage of 1-run games in the regular season versus in the postseason. Between 1998 and 2014, there were 11751 1-run games out of 41293 regular season games (28.46%,) and there were 157 1-run games out of 548 postseason games (28.65%.) Again, pretty much the same.